Republican Voters Express Reluctance to Support Trump as GOP Nominee, signaling potential shifts in party dynamics.
A small but substantial chunk of Republican primary and caucus voters say they would be so dissatisfied if Donald Trump became the party’s presidential nominee that they wouldn’t vote for him in November’s general election.
According to AP VoteCast surveys, 2 in 10 Iowa voters, one-third of New Hampshire voters, and one-quarter of South Carolina voters would be so disappointed by Trump’s renomination that they would refuse to vote for him.
This unwillingness to contemplate a presidential vote for Trump isn’t confined to voters in the earliest states. Lee and Bill Baltzell, who defected from the Republican Party to register as independents, attended a rally for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, expressing their discontent with Trump’s renomination.
The analysis also shows that many of the “never-Trump” voters in the early states were unlikely to vote for Trump, even before this year. However, the data also indicates that many of these voters aren’t Republicans and that some staunchly anti-Trump voters had voted for Biden in 2020.
The voter turnout in primaries and caucuses is typically lower than it would be in a general election, which could affect the numbers. About 1 in 10 early contest voters who supported Trump in the 2020 general election said they wouldn’t be doing so this year, but it’s not clear whether they would vote for Trump’s opponent instead.
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