President-elect Donald Trump’s national security team is actively working with the White House and Ukrainian leaders to find a path to end the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. Sources familiar with the matter revealed this concerted effort to NBC News, though challenges persist in bringing both sides to the negotiating table.
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Efforts for a Peace Plan
Trump’s advisers and Cabinet nominees hold varied views on Ukraine and have yet to propose a detailed peace plan to Kyiv. Despite this, Trump has expressed a strong commitment to ending the conflict, calling it a “tragedy” for both sides. Publicly, he has urged Russia to seek peace, while also hinting at possible reductions in U.S. military aid to Ukraine and restrictions on Ukraine’s use of American-made missiles.
Mixed Signals and Challenges with Russia
Although Trump has promised to end the war swiftly, persuading Russian President Vladimir Putin to cease hostilities remains uncertain. Moscow’s forces continue to make gains in eastern Ukraine, complicating peace efforts. Additionally, it is unclear if Trump’s team has directly communicated with Putin or what has been conveyed.
On NBC’s Meet the Press, Trump confirmed he is working on a resolution but declined to disclose whether he has spoken to Putin, stating, “I don’t want to do anything that could impede the negotiation.”
Transition Discussions with Biden Administration
Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, has held discussions with Rep. Mike Waltz, Trump’s pick for the role. While these talks have focused on sharing relevant information, they have not yet explored specific strategies for securing a ceasefire. According to a senior administration official, this collaboration ensures Trump’s team is well-prepared for any Biden administration actions on Ukraine during the transition period.
Positive Engagement with Ukraine
Trump’s team has engaged constructively with Ukrainian leaders. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump have had productive discussions, including a face-to-face meeting in Paris facilitated by French President Emmanuel Macron.
Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, also met with Keith Kellogg, Trump’s designated U.S. envoy to Ukraine. Vice President-elect J.D. Vance joined the meeting, signaling the administration’s commitment to tackling the crisis.
Proposed Peace Plans and Potential Roadblocks
One potential plan floated by Kellogg earlier this year involved pressing both sides into negotiations. Under this proposal:
- Ukraine would temporarily accept current front lines.
- Ukraine would forgo NATO membership for up to 10 years.
- Military Aid: Ukraine’s aid could be reduced if it doesn’t negotiate, while Russia’s refusal would trigger increased military support for Ukraine.
However, Russian hardliners like Konstantin Malofeyev have dismissed such proposals, demanding broader talks addressing Moscow’s security concerns.
NATO Membership and Security Guarantees
Trump’s team may reject Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership, offering security guarantees instead. While Zelenskyy has suggested deploying foreign troops in Ukraine as an interim measure, this approach faces resistance from Biden officials, who argue it could embolden Putin’s aggression.
Current Battlefield Realities
Russia’s forces have gained momentum in eastern Ukraine, while Ukraine faces manpower challenges. Analysts believe the Kremlin is unlikely to agree to a ceasefire while Ukrainian troops control parts of Russia’s Kursk region. Putin’s ultimate objective of dominating Ukraine’s political and territorial future remains unchanged.
The Path Ahead
Despite these obstacles, Trump’s team remains optimistic about achieving a ceasefire early in his presidency. Transition spokesperson Brian Hughes emphasized the administration’s commitment to projecting strength and stability during the transition.
“Trump is serious about wanting to secure a ceasefire on day one,” a source close to the matter stated. However, experts caution that success will depend on addressing both Ukrainian sovereignty and Russian security concerns in a way that satisfies all parties.
Key Takeaways:
- Trump’s team is actively pursuing peace talks but faces significant challenges.
- Constructive discussions with Ukraine have created a positive atmosphere.
- Russia’s battlefield advances and hardline stance pose major obstacles.
- The future of Ukraine’s NATO membership and security guarantees remains contentious.
Will Trump’s efforts lead to a breakthrough in one of the world’s most entrenched conflicts? Only time will tell.