The release of the Associated Press (AP) preseason top 25 poll is a much-anticipated event in the college football world, setting the stage for fan debates and early-season predictions.
This year, Georgia sits at the top, but how accurate is this ranking? While the AP Poll is steeped in tradition, it doesn’t always reflect the most reliable indicators for how teams will perform. As betting enthusiasts know, the real edge often lies in identifying overrated and underrated teams—those where public perception diverges from data-driven projections.
In this article, we’ll take a deep dive into how the AP Top 25 compares with four public projection models—ESPN’s SP+, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), KFord Ratings, and Beta Rank. We’ll explore which teams are being overrated or underrated and why, offering insights that could give you a significant advantage as you prepare for the 2024 college football season.
The Top 10 Teams: AP Poll vs. Models
1. Georgia Bulldogs
- AP Rank: 1
- Model Consensus: 1
- Insight: No surprises here. Georgia is unanimously considered the top team in the nation, backed by a stellar roster and consistent performance in recent seasons.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
- AP Rank: 2
- Model Consensus: 3
- Insight: While the Buckeyes are ranked second by the AP, the models suggest a slight drop. This could be due to questions about depth and a few key matchups that could swing their season.
3. Oregon Ducks
- AP Rank: 3
- Model Consensus: 3
- Insight: Oregon’s consistency across both human and model predictions makes them a solid contender, with a well-rounded team poised for success.
4. Texas Longhorns
- AP Rank: 4
- Model Consensus: 5
- Insight: Texas is slightly more favored by the AP than the models, reflecting optimism around their talent pool. However, the models’ slight skepticism indicates potential vulnerabilities.
5. Alabama Crimson Tide
- AP Rank: 5
- Model Consensus: 6
- Insight: Alabama is always a contender, but a drop in ranking by the models suggests they may face stiffer competition this year, especially with key players leaving for the NFL.
Teams the AP Poll Overrates
1. Oklahoma State Cowboys
- AP Rank: 17
- Model Consensus: 29
- Insight: The Cowboys are viewed more favorably by AP voters, likely due to last season’s success. However, models indicate that Oklahoma State might struggle more than anticipated, with concerns over talent and depth.
2. Utah Utes
- AP Rank: 12
- Model Consensus: 23
- Insight: Utah’s ranking in the AP Poll seems optimistic, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding Cam Rising’s injury. Models see the Utes as a team potentially set back by this key player’s health status.
3. Ole Miss Rebels
- AP Rank: 6
- Model Consensus: 13
- Insight: Ole Miss is perhaps the most overrated team in the AP Poll’s top 10. The models, which factor in losses in defense, suggest that the Rebels may not live up to the lofty expectations set by voters.
4. Kansas Jayhawks
- AP Rank: 22
- Model Consensus: 31
- Insight: Kansas gets a boost in the AP Poll thanks to optimism around quarterback Jalon Daniels. However, models are cautious, emphasizing the Jayhawks’ need to prove themselves against tougher competition.
Teams the AP Poll Underrates
1. Florida Gators
- AP Rank: Not ranked
- Model Consensus: 24
- Insight: Despite not receiving a single vote in the AP Poll, Florida’s models indicate that the Gators could surprise many this season. With a challenging schedule, they could be a dark horse to watch.
2. Auburn Tigers
- AP Rank: 41
- Model Consensus: 22
- Insight: Auburn is a clear example of a team that the models love, even if AP voters are hesitant. With a strong recruiting class and solid performance in the offseason, Auburn could climb quickly in the rankings.
3. Kentucky Wildcats
- AP Rank: 40
- Model Consensus: 29
- Insight: Kentucky’s models suggest a top-30 finish, making them a team to keep an eye on. The Wildcats have the potential to outperform expectations, particularly if their quarterback situation stabilizes.
4. Texas A&M Aggies
- AP Rank: 20
- Model Consensus: 13
- Insight: Texas A&M might be the most underrated team according to the models. With a range of 9th to 16th, the Aggies could be a force to reckon with, especially if they can keep their quarterbacks healthy.
Conclusion: Where to Find Your Edge
While the AP Poll is a valuable starting point, it’s clear that combining it with data-driven insights from projection models offers a more nuanced view of the college football landscape. Whether you’re a bettor, a fantasy player, or just a fan, understanding these discrepancies can help you find hidden opportunities in the 2024 season.
In a sport where one game can make or break a season, staying ahead of the curve by leveraging both human and machine perspectives is essential. Keep an eye on the teams mentioned here—they could be the key to your success this fall.